Two Variables that are Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) Creates Four Different Scenarios

One of the two most Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) conditions and forces acting on the future of our world over the next ten years relates to climate. Not if climate is changing, but will it be fast or slow. Secondly, will humans (especially those with significant power) embrace the need to act for the long term survival of humanity. You may have different VUCA forces in your mind, but this is where I will start to begin to encourage scenario thinking. 

 One end of the first VUCA variable is: 

No, we will Not Embrace
 the need to act to slow climate change 
 and reduce atmosphere changing gases. 
 We will not be proactive to limit 
Climate Change for the 
long term good. 
 It is of minimal importance 
to the majority of people in 
power on earth. 
There will opposition to 
cooperation and political values 
will be oriented toward the 
immediate future and the Now. 

This is negative end of the X axis. 

 (-)——————-—————————————0———————————————————(+)    

                                                                                  The other side of this variable is:  Yes, we will Embrace 

the need to act and do all we can 

limiting atmosphere warming gases. 

There will a strong political desire

 for cooperation. 

Political values will be oriented

to long term planning

 for current and future generations.

                                                                                             This is the positive end of the X axis. 

 Let me create another VUCA spectrum. This time we will make it vertical. It will be the spectrum of Climate Change is stable, slow and predictable to it is fast and unpredictable.

(+) On the ascending from 0 end of the Y axis:

We find the other VUCA variable to be about weather and climate conditions. Climate change will be slow and steady or even stop. Unpredictable weather events will be at a minimum or similar to the 19th and 20th century norms. Ocean rise will be slow. Arctic and Antarctic ice melt will slow or stop. This is the positive side of the Y axis.

 (+) 

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

0

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

(-) 

On the negative side of the axis, or descending from 0:  

We find the opposite conditions will be the norm. Climate change is accelerating. Weather events are more severe and intense the norms of the 19th and 20th centuries. The atmosphere holds more moisture as temperatures rise. Oceans levels will rise quickly with Arctic and Antarctic ice melting and breaking off land masses at accelerating rates. 

The four quadrants create four different sets of conditions for us to think strategically and creatively about possible futures. Since we know these conditions are unpredictable, we want to ponder all four quadrants and the different scenarios that can happen in each. 

Scenario 1, Upper Left Quadrant: Low Cooperation with Opposition to Future Planning And Slow and Limited Climate Change 
Scenario 2, Upper Right Quadrant: High Cooperation with Strong Future Planning And Slow and Limited Climate Change. 
Scenario 3, Lower Left Quadrant: Low Cooperation with Opposition to Future Planning And Accelerating Climate Change 
Scenario 4, Lower Right Quadrant: High Cooperation with Strong Future Planning And Accelerating Climate Change 

When we look the quadrants, we think broadly about the constituents, tribes, customers, generation groups, customers, vendors, employees and so on. 

What will they be like out on the outer regions and fringes of each quadrant? 

Don’t think about the center of grid. Focus on the those farthest from the center. 

What are the needs, conditions, problems of those most exposed to the best and worst of each scenario? 

Create descriptions and mini stories about different potential experiences in each scenario. From this work we than can focus on what are the major considerations and how to prepare for each of these scenarios. What stories and descriptions would you find in each scenario?