Scenario Planning V.U.C.A. Tree

 The Power of Four Possibilities 

Let us climb the V.U.C.A.  tree. We will be identifying mindfully the most Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) factors that effect your organization. From the two most significant uncertain forces we map out four scenarios and look at them from many perspectives. Think back to geometry or algebra in high school. The two MOST IMPORTANT VUCA factors are placed on an X axis and a Y axis. Voila, we  have a map to explore four different future scenarios! We can be pro-active and more effective leaders by:

• Creating images of the uncertain future so we can anticipate alternate outcomes and manage our resources well.
• Engaging in creative and rigorous thinking about complex forces interacting upon each other. The process forces us to challenge our assumptions about change and the future.
• Connecting our team or network around a common language about future scenarios. This deepens conversations and inspires collaboration and creativity.

                                        

Branches of the V.U.C.A. Tree are the forces or factors with the most power in the forest:

• Volatile;
• Uncertain;
• Complex;
• Ambiguous.

Three Principles of Mindful Scenarios:

1. Take the Long View: Look forward five to ten years! 
2. Think from Outside In: What does your mission and operations look like to your key stakeholders? 
3. Embrace Multiple Perspectives: There will be multiple responses and reactions to change. Listen carefully to what a variety of people have to say. They often have unique and valuable perspectives.